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Future of Fuel

By Missouri Soybean Association

Mssouri’s soybean fields are more than just a staple of the state’s agricultural economy — they are the bedrock of a growing U.S. renewable energy sector. Biofuels made with soybean oil already play a crucial role in the nation’s renewable energy strategy and there is even more opportunity down the road, over the rails and through the air.

The Missouri Soybean Merchandising Council (MSMC) is out front, leading the charge to create new value through the biofuels sector for Missouri’s soybean farmers.

Biodiesel: A Homegrown Solution for Missouri

Missouri is the second-largest biodiesel producer in the United States, a position built on decades of innovation and investment. This growth is the result of checkoff funding led by Missouri soybean farmers to establish and develop the U.S. biodiesel industry.

“Missouri farmers were instrumental in creating the biodiesel industry here in the United States,” said Matt Amick, director of market development. “Their investment in research at the University of Missouri laid the foundation for what has become a critical part of our state’s and our nation’s energy landscape.”

For Missouri, this industry also represents a closed-loop system where soybeans grown in the state are processed and consumed within its borders, reducing the need for energy imports and bolstering local economies.

Expanding Horizons: Biodiesel Beyond the Tank

Soy-based biodiesel has traditionally been used as a cleaner alternative to petroleum-based diesel. Biodiesel reduces greenhouse gas emissions by more than 70% on average compared to petroleum diesel, according to research from Argonne National Laboratory.

As the global demand for sustainable biofuels grows, soybean oil is finding new and innovative markets. From renewable diesel — a new-generation fuel that is chemically indistinguishable from petroleum diesel — to bioheat in the northeastern U.S. and soy-based fuels for the railroad and marine industries, these fuels are proving to be a versatile and vital component of the renewable energy mix.

Scott Fenwick, technical director at Clean Fuels Alliance America, said his organization is a strong believer that the market itself will help determine preferences and demands for specific soy-based fuels.

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While the use of renewable diesel is growing significantly in states with low-carbon fuel mandates, the combination of renewable diesel and biodiesel blended together can create compounded benefits and improve the performance that each renewable fuel offers individually.
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Scott Fenwick
Technical Director - Clean Fuels Alliance America

Looking back over the past decade, renewable fuels such as biodiesel and renewable diesel accounted for less than 1 billion gallons of demand. Going forward, Fenwick said the railroad and marine industries (inland as well as oceangoing vessels) biofuels markets have the potential to be 4 billion and 7 billion gallons, respectively. In addition, soy-based bioheat (home heating in the Northeast) represents another 4 billion gallon market.

Such advancements are not just about diversification but also about meeting the pressing demands for cleaner energy. The global market for renewable diesel is expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 7.4% through 2029, creating new opportunities for soybean growers and further embedding soy-based biofuels into the nation’s energy infrastructure.

“The growth in these new sectors shows we’re just scratching the surface of what soy-based fuels can do,” Fenwick said. “We’re moving beyond traditional B20 blends to applications that can use 100% biodiesel and renewable diesel fuels. We are finding new ways to leverage soy’s value as a source of environmental benefits across the biofuels sector.”

Soy-Based Fuels: Aviation and Beyond

The innovation doesn’t stop at renewable diesel. Soy-based fuels are also paving the way for the next big leap in renewable energy: sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). As airlines and governments worldwide commit to reducing carbon emissions, SAF has emerged as a critical component of aviation’s decarbonization strategy. Made from renewable feedstocks including soybean oil, SAF can reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional jet fuel.

At the national level, research and development efforts are intensifying to meet the growing demand for SAF. The American Soybean Association (ASA) is deeply involved in these efforts, advocating for policies and funding that support soy-based renewable fuels. The potential for SAF is enormous, with projections indicating a staggering compound annual growth rate of 46% through 2029, according to Market Data Forecast.

Although large, that growth rate is reasonable because the market started from a very small base, according to Scott Gerlt, chief economist at ASA. He views this as a transformative opportunity for soybeans and the renewable energy sector.

While SAF represents the next frontier for soybean-based renewable energy, future market growth still boils down to established factors such as the cost of source feedstocks and the demand created by preferences for a sustainable energy solution.

The economics could further improve as adjustments are made in carbon intensity scoring for SAF derived from soybean oil.

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We are working to fix that because in the longer run, airlines want it, and the federal government wants it. It needs to be more cost-competitive, but the SAF market is very large because the aviation sector doesn’t look to be electrifying anytime soon. The sector will need liquid fuel well into the future.
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Scott Gerlt
American Soybean Association Chief Economist

A number of other factors can come into play to help lower carbon intensity scores of soy-based SAF, such as soy crush plants and other processors reducing carbon generation through new and improved practices. As additional quantifiable measures are found to drive down the carbon score, it is even more likely that Missouri soybeans will play a role in SAF’s ascension.

As SAF research advances and commercial production accelerates, Missouri’s soybeans have the potential to become a vital resource for fueling global aviation, powering rail and river transport, and even heating American homes. With an eye on these emerging opportunities, MSMC remains committed to positioning Missouri as a leader in sustainable energy solutions for the future.

This article is funded by the United Soybean Board QSSB Grant Program.

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