There’s a quiet shift happening across the soybean processing landscape—one that’s been building for some time. Investments have been made, ground has been broken, and new capacity is coming online. By all appearances, the U.S. is on track to have greater soybean meal and oil availability, stronger quality, and more competitive pricing than ever before. This bodes well for biofuels producers, livestock feeding operations, and export partners.
At least, that’s what the math says. 
Behind the scenes, though, there’s a growing sense of unease. Yes, several crush plants are moving steadily toward completion. If they all come online as expected, we’re looking at a significant increase in daily processing capacity. But we also know that real-world operations rarely run at full speed. Weather, margins, logistics, and broader market dynamics always have their say.
And recently, they’ve been speaking loudly. Tariffs, uncertain biofuels policy, and competition from South America are placing significant pressure on the outlook ahead.
Some projects once thought certain are now sitting idle, waiting for signals that may or may not come. The reality is: a lot was built—and a lot more was planned—on the back of anticipated demand and policy support. That support has since become a moving target, clouded by regulatory uncertainty and inconsistent follow-through.
Meanwhile, existing plants are feeling the pressure. Processing margins are tight, demand signals are mixed, and run rates have softened. The energy space, once a major driver of optimism, has become a patchwork of good intentions and unclear execution. And for many, the numbers just don’t pencil out like they used to.
So where does that leave us?
In a holding pattern. With plenty of capacity, plenty of promise—and plenty of questions still unanswered. Tariff impacts are inevitable, and will be costly to U.S. farmers. Positive signals from the Trump Administration on biofuels policy will provide certainty for biofuels producers. President Trump says he wants to unlock more domestic energy and allow farmers to sell more agricultural products in America. We are no longer the world’s top soybean producer or exporter – Brazil is. But U.S. farmers will compete on quality, consistency, and reliability of products and logistics.
The fundamentals are still there. The long-term vision still holds. But until some of the uncertainty clears, the industry’s next move remains a cautious one.